Pyrene's Perch

Pyrene is Back...

2011-01-30T15:56:00.000-08:00

....and on the prowl. Dear readers, I have returned. Pyrene spent nearly a year on the prowl through the city of Baghdad. I watched the increasing capabilities of the Iraqi Security Forces and offered my humble thoughts on how to better integrate U.S. enablers. Pyrene has returned from the dusty streets and shook the desert sand from my paws.

Pyrene has returned.

Another Bloody Day in Baghdad

2010-04-23T08:39:00.000-07:00

Bombs once again ripped through the Iraqi Capitol as the threat of post-election violence seems to remain poised at the surface. The NY Times reports on the violence of today's events here. As the Iraqi Security Forces continue to struggle to stop the massive attacks, the specter of pre-surge violence hangs like an unspoken curse over the Iraqi people.

With the draw down of American forces continuing, who will be there to stop the continuing violence?

My Perch from Baghdad

2010-03-06T23:28:00.000-08:00

Pyrene continues to watch DIMEFIL first hand as the elections in Iraq continue to develop. After a rash of activity this morning, things have somewhat settled down into more of a stable pattern. People are getting out to vote despite the potential for violence, a process which is moving to see, especially when you realize just how hard it is to get Americans to vote when there is no danger to them. Go vote Iraqi people. My brothers and sisters and so many of your blessed dead have paid the ultimate price for this day. Earn it.

-Pyrene

Pyrene Returns

2010-02-26T07:11:00.000-08:00

It has been too long my friends. After a long absence, I have one again climbed up on my perch to provide to you opinions on strategy, DIMEFIL, and the events which shape the world around us. Pyrene is once again in the deserts of the world, casting a keen eye onto the Baghdad skyline once again. And while I've seen many an improvement in terms of the security forces, many issues Pyrene delt with before remain the same, worse in some cases.

Welcome back dear friends, welcome back. I look forward to sharing our thoughts together again.

-Pyrene

Pirates and Economy

2009-04-15T07:17:00.000-07:00

What is the root cause of the continued piracy in the Gulf of Aden? Greed? Instability in Somalia? The forces of globalization clashing with a culture of crime? Some thoughts:

1) Ungoverned Spaces: Places like Somalia, Pakistan and other areas of the world which lack a stable government that can control its territory continue to serve as breeding grounds for terrorist and criminal organizations. Just as Al Qaeda found a home in the ungoverned spaces of Afghanistan, so too have the Pirates in Somalia. All the root causes of instability from poverty, to lack of an economy, to limited resources all add to the instability of Somalia...and create a haven for the pirate criminal elements.

2) Culture. Somalia has a history of ungoverned populace, blood debts and violence. Can you imagine a better place for money hungry, violent pirates to set up base?

3) Globalization: The continued growth of international trade sends nearly 20,000 ships past through the Gulf of Aden to avoid the longer (and more costly) route around the Cape of Good Hope. This presents a target rich environment which is nearly impossible to police on the open seas.

I've joked about Piracy in previous posts (ARGGGHH) but it continues to grab media headlines and demonstrates the dangers of ungoverned spaces. Comprehensive policies, not limited to only military, are needed. However, with a vacuum of leadership, government and oversight in Somalia, do not expect any solutions in the near term.

Thomas Ricks' New Book...

2009-02-10T06:23:00.000-08:00

...should be another great read on the continuing legacy of Iraq. Tom Ricks' newest book,
The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008, looks like another must read from the former Washington Post writer and now consultant for Foreign Policy Magazine (and blogger as well).

Click here to read the NY Times book review.

Click here to see the book on Amazon.com.

Click here to get to Tom Ricks' blog over at Foreign Policy's website.

Is this the right shift?

2009-01-28T02:58:00.000-08:00

The NY Times today has a story which indicates the President is looking to move away from rebuilding efforts in Afghanistan and focus the U.S. troops on fighting. Click here for the story.

While I understand the desire to shift some of the nation building to our European allies...is this the smart thing to do? Who has more recent experience working along the civil lines, rebuilding communities while simultaneously fighting a counterinsurgency battle? I'll tell you it's not Germany or France...that's for sure.

Its played to say what works in Iraq will not work in Afghanistan. Everyone from Nagl/Frick in the latest Foreign Policy to General Petraeus has come out with this statement. That being said, some fundamental principles still apply. While I firmly agree we need more support from NATO allies, what is the main effort in Afghanistan? Is it the fighting or the rebuilding? In a counterinsurgency, what is the key terrain...its the people correct? So this anticipated shift of U.S. focus to fighting AQ and the Taliban concerns me. It seems to go against what most informed, COIN experts have been saying and against the painful and expensive lessons learned in Iraq. Again, two completely different environments...but some of the building blocks are the same.

And the Darwin Award nomination goes to...

2009-01-10T10:08:00.000-08:00

...the Somali pirates who drowned with their $3 Million ransom. Probably the most expensive funeral in that part of the world in history!

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/01/10/world/AP-Piracy.html?hp

Foreign Policy

2009-01-07T05:40:00.000-08:00

It looks like the January-February 2009 issue of Foreign Policy is the Counterinsurgency Issue. It includes interviews with General Petraeus and an article on COIN in Afghanistan by retired LTC John Nagl and former Marine Nate Fick. The article by Nagl and Fick, to me at least, is a recap of lessons learned from previous counterinsurgency operations...its a short, flash version of David Galula's work reprinted in Foreign Policy magazine. General Petraeus's article, however, is truly worth a read. It gives you an interesting insight on Iraq and Afghanistan...good stuff. Click here to access the article.

Congrats as well to former Washington Post writer and author of Fiasco, Tom Ricks, for his new blog over at Foreign Policy magazine and on his upcoming book on Iraq, The Gamble. If its anything like Fiasco, it will be another well researched and written book on Iraq. Tom has joined the staff of Foreign Policy along with famed realist, Stephen Walt. Walt and John Mearscheimer wrote the excellent book, The Israeli Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, which continues to be relevant especially with the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Click here to see the book on Amazon.com.
Looks like Pyrene will be looking especially forward to his latest copy of FP!

-Pyrene

Back in the Saddle

2008-12-09T06:01:00.000-08:00

Pyrene apologizes for missing the past few weeks...sometimes Pyrene's job at the great mouser takes him away from places where he can easily post on the internet. Hunting mice and keeping the great Mess Hall free from vermin is my job...but I missed being able to post here.

So much has occurred in the past few weeks I'll do a quick summary. First, the economy continues to be on shaky ground across the globe. Some Americans like to compare this to the Great Depression...while they type on their wireless internet/laptop or from their blackberry. When the luxuries go away along with their monthly fees, I'll start to consider any reaching attempts to compare today to the Great Depression. Until then, don't.

Piracy continues to be a huge topic of discussion and global issue around Somalia. I suspect with the world attention focused in this area, we can expect to see a sudden decrease in the amount of bold pirates around...the dumb ones will disappear first.

Of course the recent terrorist attacks in India have heightened the tensions between India and Pakistan to unheard of levels. Add the attacks on convoys headed to Pakistan destroying US supplies adds to overall tension. Remember these are two countries with nuclear weapons people....nuclear weapons! Also, a reminder that a huge (above 80%) of the supplies for US forces in Afghanistan come through Pakistani ports...lose the ports and we lose 80% of our logistical support. Imagine the impact on operations if that were to happen from a war with India.

Its great to be back.

Pyrene

Pyrene on a potential blockade...

2008-11-24T10:13:00.001-08:00

Today's Fox News has an article today on the continued piracy and search for a solution in today's news. Click here to read the article.

The article highlights the ignorance of the shipping officials who are asking for a "blockage" of the entire Somali coast. In my mind a blockade requires a massive amount of ships, support and commitment by the nations involved. Images of the British blockading Napoleon's fleet, the Northern Navy intercepting Blockade runners or the attempt to bottle up the German fleet in WWI. All massive operations requiring a huge commitment...something we just do not have.

That being said, a military solution seems like the most effective against the ongoing piracy. Rather than a blockade, focused efforts on the logistics and ships of the pirates would be a preferred method. Surveillance utilizing unmanned aerial platforms to locate their supply bases accompanied by direct strikes would rapidly put a dent in the piracy operations. In Pyrene's opinion, this is a military/law enforcement problem requiring rapid action to prevent further losses.

Blockade? Ain't gonna happen. Targeted strikes, escorted vessels and the rapid destruction of pirate bases are the path to success in this blogger's opinion.

Pyrene on Piracy

2008-11-21T13:41:00.000-08:00

Recently the news has focused on the increaseing bold and costly pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia. The NY Times has a good article here.

The recent destruction of a pirate "mother ship" by the Indian Navy is a good start. The concern, however, is how shipping companies are going to pass the increasing cost of piracy onto the consumer. Paying ransoms, taking longer routes (thereby using more fuel and time) to avoid the Somali coast and increased security all increases the overall cost of shipping by sea. The result, higher costs to the consumers in a tough economic market.

Pyrene's thoughts? Assemble a Joint Task Force of Navy ships and an expeditionary unit to search for and destroy the pirates. It worked before in the 1600s-1700s and it can work again. Remember we (the U.S.) have been dealing with piracy since our founding. The very beginning of the U.S. Marines delt with the Barbary Pirates...and once again we are dealing with piracy off the shores of Africa.

It is time to protect the E in national power and flex the M. Pyrene says "Pirates, ye be warned!"

Pyrene on a change in tactics

2008-11-14T10:15:00.000-08:00

...in Iraq. Today's NY Times has a worthwhile story on a change in insurgent tactics in Iraq. Click here to read the article.

In Pyrene's mind, this article highlights a few things. First, as many know, the insurgency has thinking enemy. They adapt to our tactics just as we adapt to theirs. The recent security improvements and operations against their bomb assembly facilities has greatly reduced their capability to make large explosives or suicide vests...not impossible but more difficult. So the game once again shifts. Now, with smaller, more easily concealable and locally produced explosives, the insurgents have once again demonstrated their ability to adapt.

Another take away from the article is the the successful use of security measures by US and Iraqi forces. The shift in insurgent tactics indicates the level of success recent operations have had on their ability to strike. From killing key leaders and specialists such as bomb-makers, to tightening security around key population areas, the tactics are working.

Pyrene knows this action-counteraction-reaction cycle is part of war. But by looking a bit deeper, we can pick out key information from this article. And for the Coalition forces, those bits of information are positive.

-Pyrene

Election Day Thoughts

2008-11-03T08:18:00.000-08:00

Tomorrow marks another election day in the United States. Pyrene wanted to share his limited thoughts on this day.

I watch many people, friends and family included, continue to argue over who will make the better President. I continually remind people, however, that regardless of who is elected, there will be a smooth transition of power once again in America without bloodshed. This is something that many countries cannot say when you look at the current political situations in the world.

It is amazing that a free, unfettered election in this country is so taken for granted. No death squads, no sectarian violence, no ethnic cleansing, suicide bombers, etc. Just an orderly election (and of course there will be flaws...but nothing like these other events) which results in a smooth transition of power. Many do not consider just how amazing this is. For those of us that have witnessed the bloody attempt at a power transition or felt the explosions around polling places first hand, we must keep reminding our fellow Americans not to take this day for granted. Despite all the infighting and long, hard campaigning, it is the fact that we can move past once a choice is made and get ready to continue into the future as Americans.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on a no-brainer

2008-10-23T06:44:00.000-07:00

Today's NYTimes reports that Russia would not block a UN Mandate extending US involvement in Iraq. Click here to read the story.

Is this a surprise to anyone out there? Russia, who has no troops in Iraq and fully understands radical islamists continue to fight and die in Iraq doesn't have an issue letting US troops stay? Wow! Alert the media...ooop...too late!

Let's break this down. Russia is already on thin ice due to their invasion of Georgia. They now have to deal with the same problem Georgia dealt with...breakaway provinces who will cause a headache regardless of who "owns" them. To the Russians Pyrene says be careful what you wish for...you now have it!

The global economy is in the tank. More importantly, or dangerously for Russia, oil prices are plummeting. This is where the true Russian strength lies. Their stock market is not a good indicator of their economic strength, the price of oil is. The further oil prices decline and the longer they remain there, the worse off you will see aspects of the Russian DIMEFIL become. Remember it wasn't until Russia started turning huge profits on state-owned oil did the Russian military gain importance. Thomas Friedman's Petropolitics graph may be right. As the price of oil goes up, the amount of freedom within certain states (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), goes down. As oil goes down (and so does a country's DIMEFIL assets), the individual's ability to express desires for freedom goes up.

Pyrene says let's watch and see.

Pyrene on the SOFA Saga...

2008-10-20T06:17:00.000-07:00

Today's Washington Post has an article discussing the continuing troubles with developing a new Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) in Iraq. Click here for the story.

The dominant Shiite Party, and party of current Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki, continue to push for two key items: 1) a 2011 withdrawal date of U.S. forces and 2) the ability to prosecute both U.S. Military and contractors for crimes committed against Iraqis.

Here is the rub. We continue to claim Iraq is an independent and free country. However, we have over 100,000 troops in their country AND are fighting a war within the borders of an "independent" nation. Unfortunately, the U.S. and Iraq cannot have everything their way. The U.S. cannot keep its personnel from prosecution of a crime is committed off duty against an Iraqi without a strong SOFA in place. Iraq, on the other hand, cannot ask for military assistance, training and equipment yet demand the withdrawal of US troops by 2011. Obviously some middle ground must be found.

Unfortunately, the middle ground will most likely not satisfy anyone. Pyrene expects a stop-gap measure, at least until the new administration comes into office and decides what course to take. Pyrene's thoughts, however, are these: If a host asks me to leave a party, I'll take my coat and hat then head for the door. To Pyrene, it sounds like an ungracious host is handing us our hat....what do you think?

Pyrene on SOFA

2008-10-14T09:43:00.001-07:00

...or Status of Forces Agreement. Today's Washington Post has a good article on the roadblocks U.S. and Iraqi negotiators face as the technical deadline for U.S. troops to leave Iraq rapidly approaches. Click here for the story.

Technically, the UN mandate under which U.S. forces are allowed to operate in the sovereign country of Iraq ends at the end of this year. Negotiators are trying to hammer out a deal which allows the U.S. forces to legally stay past 31 December. However, the SOFA, or Status of Forces Agreement, continues to be a stumbling block.

SOFAs exist in every country the U.S. has forces in. For example, we have had a SOFA with the German government ever since they came into existence post WWII. The SOFA governs the relationship between a U.S. soldier working/living in a foreign country and that host nation's laws. SOFAs get awfully complex when dealing with legal issues...especially while a war is ongoing such as Iraq. Even in tame environments such a Germany, SOFAs are continually reviewed, updated and fought over. One can imagine all the difficulties facing the Iraqi and U.S. negotiators.

From a legal instrument of power perspective, developing a SOFA which protects U.S. service members in a host nation and provides the necessary framework beneficial to that country is vital. Without a SOFA, U.S. forces are, in essence, an Army of occupation.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on the latest from Afghanistan

2008-10-09T10:50:00.000-07:00

The NY Times reported today on the latest information on Afghanistan from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mullen. Click here for the link.

Some interesting trends. First, Admiral Mullen talked about how there is not a purely military solution. The need to harness all the elements of national power, just as in Iraq, clearly exists in Afghanistan. If anything it appears from his statements we are using the elements of DIMEFIL far less than in Iraq.

Next, when you look at the economic, financial, legal and informational aspects of the poppy trade, the US faces a trying dilemma. How do you eradicate the only cash producing crop in a struggling country without destroying it? The continued turmoil in policies regarding the opium trade will plague this issue.

The ungoverned space in Pakistan continues to provide a safe haven and fertile breeding ground for insurgents. The attacks across an internationally recognized border pose distressing military, diplomatic and legal issues.

The picture presented by Admiral Mullen is not a pretty one. While more troops are slated for Afghanistan, it would be interesting to see what the overall growth (if any) in the other elements of national power.

What do you think?

-Pyrene

Pyrene on AQ

2008-10-06T05:24:00.000-07:00

Today's NY Times has another tragic story about how members of Al Qaeda operate within countries such as Iraq. Click here for the story. Certain member of AQ, whether dedicated fanatics of high level leadership, often wear suicide vests to keep from being captured. What is more disturbing, however, is how and where they will detonate themselves.

Pyrene could care less of one more AQ member tries to get a free trip to heaven where his 77 Virginians ;-) are waiting for him. One less nutjob on this planet for Pyrene's friends to have to contend with. However, in this particular instance, the AQ member's efforts had an almost strategic effect.

By surrounding himself with an innocent family of women and children, the AQ member maximized the information effect of his self-destruction. Whereas detonating only himself would not be newsworthy (not anymore), the killing of civilians was a strategic decision placing increased pressure on the information aspect of the U.S. instruments of power.

Rather than merely addressing the incident in the media and continuing (the U.S. spokesperson did a good job), highlight the evilness of this AQ members actions. Even more than that, add this to a worldwide media campaign showing the world what a true "believer" actually believes in. First, he is a coward who would rather kill himself than fight. Next, innocent lives have no meaning to him...even Muslim innocent lives. Here is where AQ and their "apostate" argument comes into play. But the world cannot disagree with the fact killing an innocent family just to prevent capture falls outside of the realm of any religion, even that of Islam.

By bringing to light in a global information campaign, the U.S. stands to gain some ground in either hostile or neutral countries. Our allies know and understand the truth. It is those on the fence, which our information campaign should hope to bring over to the side of righteousness.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on the Drugs in Afghanistan

2008-10-02T02:49:00.000-07:00

Today's NY Times reports the Commander in Afghanistan is planning increased efforts against the narco-traffic which is so prevalent. Story here.

Afghanistan is the world's supplier of Opium, used to make drugs throughout the world. However, the Times states, "The comments by the commander, Gen. David D. McKiernan, made clear that international troops in Afghanistan were not going to eradicate opium poppy crops. Afghanistan is the world’s top supplier of opium poppies, which are processed into heroin"

It is clear that both AQ and the Taliban use drug sales to raise money to support their efforts. Opium, being the largest drug crop in Afghanistan, however, seems to be getting yet another free pass. The reason being? This is Afghanistan's only economic product within the whole country. Other than Opium, Afghanistan has no noteworthy exports outside its borders. If the opium crops are eradicated, NATO and the U.S. will have literally destroyed the incredibly fragile economy of Afghanistan.

While efforts to develop replacement crops continue, they meet little success. Why would an Afghan farmer want to grow wheat and get $10 an acre where he can grow opium and make $100 for that same acre? The incentives to move away from the drug crop are just not there. While I agree there needs to be more of an anti-drug effort to stem the flow of money going to AQ and the Taliban, this selective policy seems doomed to fail from the get-go.

What do you think?

-Pyrene

Pyrene's Pirate Update..

2008-09-29T07:20:00.001-07:00

...an update from the Washington Post here.

Pyrene on Pirates...

2008-09-29T06:42:00.000-07:00

....Arg!!! Ok, I just had to get that out. As much as we like "Talk like a Pirate" day or the Pirates of the Caribbean Movies, piracy continues to be a major problem in modern times. The recent pirate capture of a freighter loaded with tanks is just one incident reminding us of the numerous piracy issues. Click here for the story.

Why the increase in piracy? As more and more commercial goods move by ship and we see an increase in ungoverned areas, the seeds for piracy germinate. Ungoverned spaces, such as the country of Somalia, or the thousands of Islands around Indonesia, provide perfect hideouts for pirates. These unpatrolled coastlines provide a haven for pirates to plan and launch attacks while also providing refuge from those looking for them. The real problem occurs when piracy attacks occur in international waters. With no global police, the responsibility to stop piracy becomes more difficult. Coupled with ungoverned spaces, the problem is magnified.

The organized militaries of the world do not have enough ships or resources to remain on constant guard for piracy. That being said, there exist some permanent task forces which remain in the area where piracy remains high. In addition, surveillance assets such as unmanned vehicles and satellites provide another way to provide an "unblinking eye" looking for potential piracy. These efforts, however, must be augmented with possible direct strikes against pirate "coves" where the boats, personnel and equipment hide. The current surveillance assets available to the major navies should be able to track pirates back to their hideouts...then eliminate them.

This is a short term solution, of course. What is required is a look at the long-term causes of piracy and developing mid to long term solutions. For now, however, the Navies of the major militaries remain the most efficient and promising countermeasure to this centuries old problem.

Pyrene on longing for the past...

2008-09-25T05:34:00.000-07:00

Today's Washington Post has a good article on an increasingly worrisome trend in Afghanistan. Click here to read the article.

This article highlights some key points in our continuing efforts in Afghanistan. While we continue to read about and focus on (at least media wise) the military aspects, there are so many other key components requiring a concerted effort, security being paramount. The experiences in Iraq have proven a well known counterinsurgency method: you must secure the population. In this case, the article highlights the increasing concern of the population.

From a Law Enforcement and Information perspective, this article should serve as a warning to policy makers. While we continue to talk about increasing the amount of troops in Afghanistan, will they focus on increasing security or will they be out in isolated posts fighting the Taliban.

What do you think?

-Pyrene

Pyrene on Uncle Carl...

2008-09-23T06:03:00.000-07:00

....Clausewitz lives again! Today's NYTimes has a story entitled "Friction Infiltrates Sunni Patrols on Safer Iraqi Streets". Click to read the story here.

The Times story discusses the inherent friction when you arm nearly 100,000 men and pay them to protect people. Armed gangs form, criminals take advantage of a situation and power plays results in lost lives. Within these "Guardian Councils", the same hatred, mistrust and jealousy which existed prior to their formation still exists. The struggle against a common enemy kept the internal violence in its latent form. As the outside threat of AQ continues to diminish, the checks on internal violence continues to bubble up. Think Sopranos with automatic weapons, IED and government funding.

Carl von Clausewitz, the military theorist of the 19th century which so many try to bury over and over again, was a big believer in the friction of war. His Treatise, On War, talks about a variety of aspects of war. His chapter 7 discusses friction specifically:

"Everything is very simple in war, but the simplest thing is difficult. These difficulties accumulate and produce a friction, which no man can imagine exactly who has not seen war"

He continues to say: "Friction is the only conception which, in a general way, corresponds to that which distinguishes real war from war on paper. The military machine, the army and all belonging to it, is in fact simple; and appears, on this account, easy to manage. But let us reflect that no part of it is in one piece, that it is composed entirely of individuals, each of which keeps up its own friction in all directions. Theoretically all sounds very well; the commander of a battalion is responsible for the execution of the order given; and as the battalion by its discipline is glued together into one piece, and the chief must be a man of acknowledged zeal, the beam turns on an iron pin with little friction. But it is not so in reality, and all that is exaggerated and false in such a conception manifests itself at once in war. The battalion always remains composed of a number of men, of whom, if chance so wills, the most insignificant is able to occasion delay, and even irregularity. The danger which war brings with it, the bodily exertions which it requires, augment this evil so much, that they may be regarded as the greatest causes of it."

Friction has always been and will always be a part of war. For months now we have read about the growing success of the Sunni Awakening Council. Carl von Clausewitz recognized the inherent friction in war...as we should as well.

For more on Clausewitz, visit this excellent website at www.clausewitz.com.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on the ending of an era...

2008-09-22T05:23:00.000-07:00

...last night it was with a heavy heart that Pyrene watched the last game at Yankee Stadium. While a blog post on the closing of the "Cathedral" may not seem to be DIMEFIL worth, grant me this indulgence. Story with some great photos here.

The study of the instruments of national power, DIMEFIL for short, serves as a useful model to look at both ourselves as a country and others as well. However, where in the DIMEFIL model does history come into play? I bring this up as I reminisce about all of the American history which occurred at Yankee Stadium. From the "Win one for the Gipper" speech, 3 Papal visits, to President Bush throwing a strike before Game 3 of the 2001 World Series as the city continued to recover from the events of 9/11. These moments in history define not only Yankee Stadium or New York, but a nation. They are as much a part of our national identity as our diplomatic, economic or military history. The events of the past are cultural. They are what define us as Americans...they give us that common bond between people. From the sales-clerk at an all-night convenience store to the Hollywood movie actor...the simple donning of the same cap forms an instant bond...a shared identity. This ability to share an identity, to enjoy a memory together or to look back and realize just how important our history is as a nation...this is why saying goodbye is so hard.

Regardless of who's team you wear on your hat, the closing of Yankee Stadium brings one era of American history to an end. As with all things in life, however, it marks a new beginning. Parts of that history will be carried over to the new stadium. Physical reminders of course such as home plate or the Joe DiMaggio sign in the tunnel. But more importantly, the memories and history will always live on regardless of where the new Stadium stands. This is what makes us Americans. Just as we can never replace what we lost, be it the World Trade Center or Yankee Stadium, we as a nation continue to live on respecting our past while always looking to the future.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on Afghanistan's Winter

2008-09-19T05:15:00.001-07:00

Today's NYTimes has a good article on what could be another tough winter for the Afghanis this year. Article Here.

Once again Mother Nature how fickle she can be. After a brutal winter last year, Afghanistan suffered from a harsh drought this summer greatly reducing the available crops. Add to that 30 years of devastating warfare, you have the recipe for the making of a humanitarian disaster. Winters in Afghanistan are particularly harsh...cold winds, cramped conditions and little food all have the potential to kill thousands this winter if measures aren't taken by the Afghanistan Government and the world community. This huge challenge for NATO as well. While the sovereign Government of Afghanistan (GoA) is in charge of its country, it only manages to do so thanks to NATO. Should a catastrophe occur, NATO will receive most of the blame.

Although only briefly mentioned in the article, the disenchantment of returning refugees continues to create a ready and willing force for Al Qaeda to recruit from. Continued government corruption, a lack of security and the perception that western governments are merely using Afghanistan as a pawn in the continuation of the great game, all provide recruits for the insurgency. Until the people are taken care of properly, Afghanistan will remain a hotbed of insurgent activity. Happy people do not become insurgents. This simple truth points to a fundamental question regarding Afghanistan. Is there anything NATO, the GoA or even the world can do to make Afghans happy?

Pyrene doesn't know either.

Pyrene's Russia Prediction

2008-09-18T02:42:00.000-07:00

A few weeks ago, Pyrene stated that the perilous Russian economy remained one of their weakest points. Even though the American markets suffered a massive set back between Monday and Wednesday, the Russian markets fared far worse.

According to Stratfor, the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange fell 17% and the Russian Trading System (RTS) fell by 12 forcing officials to halt trading an hour early. The Russian ruble has become literally the world's worst performing major currency. Once again, America's cold has infected all the world markets...but Russia's was already in a perilous state after their aggressive invasion of Georgia. Include in that the continuing falling oil prices (below $90 a barrel) and you have the making of economic trouble for Russia.

However, Stratfor is correct in pointing out the Russians are far less dependent on their markets than we are. The real problem for the Russian markets regards bonds. Bonds are not only the primary way for for foreigners to invest in the Russian economy, but also the main way Russia firms fund major expansion. With the continuing economic crisis around the world, the chance for continued bond investing will dry up. While this will not a short term economic impact on the Russians...the long-term impact will definitely cause more problems for an already shaky Russian economy.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on the Economic Crisis

2008-09-16T06:54:00.001-07:00

Most know about the continuing issues with the economic markets. The recent collapse of Lehman Brothers and the purchasing of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America shook the stock markets yesterday around the world. Story here. As as result, there is a veneer of panic hanging over most of the globe today.

Clearly this affects two key aspects of DIMEFIL...economic and financial. While I tend to agree with comments made by Senator McCain that the fundamentals of the U.S economy remain strong, one has to wonder how much pressure these fundamentals can take. The economic well being of America obviously has affects across a flattened world. The Asian markets were the first to show their panic and it rapidly spread across the globe.

Some thoughts from Pyrene. All the world economies are linked. Clearly America continues to move the markets in either direction. What is needed is some strong leadership to calm the worrying masses. As people nervously glance at their disappearing mutual funds or IRAs, someone or some organization needs to reach out and ensure the people are protected. Once some calm is achieved, leaders need to go back and address some of the underlying problems: bad loans, the housing crunch, the high price of oil (although that continues to fall), etc. America for one needs to rapidly get away from its dependence on foreign oil...one key component to strengthening many elements of its national power. This drop in the market is one clear sign that not all is well.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on 9/11

2008-09-11T07:45:00.000-07:00

Please take a moment to remember the victims of 9/11. Fly your American flag, say a prayer, just remember that horrible day 7 years ago that changes so many lives.

-Pyrene Remembers

Pyrene on Pakistan Sanctuary

2008-09-10T10:16:00.000-07:00

Acclaimed Terrorist expert, Bruce Hoffman, has an interesting commentary on CNN today about the exaggerated optimism over the eventual downfall of Al Qaeda. Read his commentary here. Dr. Hoffman brings up some great points. There is Pyrene's thoughts on two of them.

While optimism is good, false optimism is dangerous to both the political and military leadership of the nation. AQ has proven itself to be a dynamic, tough and resourceful Terrorist organization. It continues to have a large base of support in the Muslim world and a large following among "copy cat" groups. They still have a large base to receive finances and the sanctuary afforded by the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) of Pakistan is critical to their infrastructure. Their network, however, is literally global. As a result they have a broad base of support and operational personnel to reach out to.

Next, the sanctuary in the FATA continues to be a major problem for Coalition forces in Afghanistan. The difficulties in trying to strike at AQ within Pakistan are many. First and foremost, the Pakistani government must publicly condone and protest and attacks on its soil. What would the U.S. do were Mexico to launch an attack on drug cartels on U.S. soil? Next, the inherent difficulties operating in these mountainous areas are numerous. For centuries, this area has provided refuge for soldiers, thieves, smugglers and traders. The use of air strikes and unmanned aerial vehicles with missiles continues to cause civilian casualties...merely increasing the loyalty of these civilians to the people they hide.

Dr. Hoffman's article is worthy of reflection. We still are war and will be for a long time. The end is not in sight...do not lose focus on this critical fact.

Pyrene

Pyrene on Bacevich

2008-09-09T05:07:00.001-07:00

A video worth watching. An interview with Andrew Bacevich with some great DIMEFIL implications. Worth the time to watch and think about.

Pyrene on Pakistan

2008-09-08T09:48:00.001-07:00

Once again, it seems the gloves have come off with regards to the U.S. in dealing with the unruly Pakistan western border. Story here. With the removal of former President Musharraf, the U.S. has openly stepped up its operations against AQ and AQ supporters in the ungoverned space known as Waziristan. As a result, the tensions between the U.S. and Pakistan, at least publicly, are on the rise.

With the election of a new Pakistani President, the U.S. has to tread softly, at least publicly. There is a chance to bolster the continued support from Pakistan for the GWOT. There also exists another major incentive for Pakistan to continue with its assistance...the huge amount of U.S. aid provided to Pakistan...already over $8 Billion since 2001.

The give and take goes as such: the U.S. needs to maintain an open relationship with Pakistan to provide a route for major logistical flows. Pakistan is the only area with ports to move logistical support into Afghanistan by ground. On the other hand, Pakistan is as concerned with the AQ forces and supporters as much as the U.S. is, at least privately. A balance must be struck where the U.S. has the ability to conduct limited strikes against targets within Pakistan to deny a growing sanctuary. On the other hand, Pakistan has to, at least publicly, portray dissent against the U.S. actions on its sovereign soil.

Pyrene says to keep an eye on the border...it is where the battles in Afghanistan will be won or lost.

Pyrene's Picks

2008-09-04T05:17:00.000-07:00

For this week's Pyrene's Picks, I've selected a fascinating book called "The Great Influenza" by John Barry. Link to the book here. His book talks about a deadly influenza strain which ravaged the globe, killing nearly 100 million people...that's right...100 MILLION people. But rather than taking place in the middle ages, this true nightmare took place in 1918-1919, just as the world was emerging from a devestating World War....and America was hit hard.

Barry's book does a great job of putting the time period into context. President Wilson went to unprecedented lengths to restrict civil liberties of Americans...so much that many readers will be shocked. The country was at war and no restriction was too much. The censorship of the press, free speech, and the right to express even the smallest hint of dissent against the government was rapidly punished.

According to Barry, he cites evidence that the flu actually started in a small town in Kansas and was spread by the massive military moves and camps around the states, first hitting Camp Funston, part of today's modern Fort Riley. These massive camps, overcrowded to the gills, were ripe breeding grounds for a deadly strain of the flu. Once military hospitals and medical staffs were overwhelmed, they turned to the civilian medical community for help...and took the virus with them.

Barry does a great job tracking the spread of the flu, the herculean efforts to try and stop the flu and the long term historical implications the flu had. Perhaps even scarier, is Barry's explanations of current worries such as SARS and the Asian Bird Flu...proof that a microscopic virus can literally bring the world to a stand still. In the end, the Great Influenza killed an estimated 100 million people world wide. Reading about the stacks of dead bodies in New York, Philadelphia and other cities around the U.S. is enough to bring a chill to your spine.

Pyrene on "hot pursuit"

2008-09-04T02:56:00.001-07:00

Today's NY Times has an interesting story on U.S. Special Operations forces attacking militants on Pakistani soil. Click here to read the article. As most of you know, American forces have battled against Al Qaeda, the Taliban and Islamic extremists since 2001 in Afghanistan. Where once Afghanistan was a sanctuary, the wild and lawless western Pakistani border region has taken over that role. Pakistan has been and will continue to be unable to provide security in this region. The Taliban and AQ forces know this and exploit it. While Pakistan is a sovereign nation with internationally recognized borders, their inability to keep violent forces from launching attacks against coalition forces into Afghanistan is a cause for major concern.

This attack falls into what is commonly referred to as "hot pursuit". While details remain sketchy, some think this is just the first acknowledged instance of U.S. ground forces entering Pakistan to engage targets. Pyrene believes this is a necessary, albeit dangerous step, to deny sanctuary to both AQ and Taliban forces.

For years, U.S. forces tried to avoid public incursions into Pakistan save the occasional missile strike against a high value target. The U.S. was concerned about their ally, former President Musharraf's ability to stay in power if Pakistani public outcry grew too loud against U.S. actions within their country. With Musharaff now out of power and attacks against coalition forces growing more lethal, one can argue the gloves are now off.

By striking against these sanctuary areas, the U.S. sends a strong signal to those using western Pakistan to launch attacks...you can run but you cannot hide forever. Used prudently, these attacks can have a major impact with a small footprint. Expect Pakistan to protest our actions. That being said, they too are under assault from these AQ and extremist forces. Any killed by U.S. forces are those the Pakistani government does not have to deal with any more. Pyrene suspects the Pakistani government puts on its public face by protesting U.S. actions, but inside the halls of power, realize we have the same goal in common: to rid the world of Al Qaeda and Islamic terrorists no matter where they hide.

Pyrene on Anbar

2008-09-02T07:57:00.000-07:00

Today's NY Times reported on the hand-over of the Al Anbar province in Iraq. While this is great news and evidence of the continued progress made in Iraq, we must be very cautious about celebrating this small but important step towards handing all of Iraq back to the Iraqis. Some thoughts:

1) Pyrene was in Iraq when Fallujah (in Al Anbar) exploded with rage resulting in the killing of the American contractors. This (in Pyrene's opinion) was the start of the "in the open" insurgency.

2) Pyrene watched as an Iraqi Army battalion refused to board helicopters to go to Fallujah then deserted the next day from Taji. It truly is amazing how far the IA has come.

3) Early last year, Pyrene saw the changes in Fallujah. The troops there led the way in setting up combat outposts (COPs) before GEN Petraeus came into command. These COPs resulted in better contact with the community and denied the insurgents the chance to take back parts of the province.

4) Anbar was proof of an insurgent MUST have the support of the population to survive. When the Al Qaeda extremists started executing Anbar Iraqs for "violations" of Muslim law, the insurgents lost the "fish" among which they had been able to hide within the "pond" of Anbar. When an insurgent loses the support of his popular support, be it through the the efforts of the counterinsurgent force or the insurgents' own stupidity, life for that insurgency grows both harder and shorter.

5) The situation there is much better than it has ever been. That being said, the gains paid for with so many U.S. and Iraqi lives are perilous at best. The Sunni-Shia divide within the Iraqi government still has the potential to tear away that the Anbar gains. The "Awakening Councils" still remain a powerful force and care must be taken to ensure they do not become private militias or an Anbar Defense Force at odds with the Shia dominated Iraqi government.

In Pyrene's opinion, the advances in Anbar are obviously good news. Handing back parts of Iraq to the Iraqis are both necessary and important. Much work lies ahead but this is another positive step forward to getting the U.S. out of Iraq.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on the continued Georgia issue

2008-08-28T05:50:00.000-07:00

Pyrene said it first. After Russia recognized the breakaway provinces of Abkahzia and South Ossetia, their stock market took a plunge. Story here. Welcome to living in a Capitalist World Russia. The bad old days of the USSR are gone. As an integrated global economy where your stock markets play a role in your politics and vice versa, everything has an effect. In this case, the Russia military invasion of Georgia is starting to reap the whirlwind. With oil prices on a continued downward trend and the shaky Russian economy teetering on the brink, the Russians can ill-afford for their stock markets to take a hit. More to come on that avenue I'm sure.

On another note, continued NATO naval presence in the Black Sea is starting to worry the Russians. They even have the nerve to try and quote a 1936 Naval Treaty (the Montreux Convention). This after Russia violated every law of international conduct by violating the sovereignty of an independent nation. Why is Russia worried about the increased NATO naval presence? A few thoughts from Pyrene:

1) Russia's military might is not assured. Invading and beating up the Georgian military is like picking on the smallest child in a neighborhood. You haven't proven anything other than you are a bully. Russia and the rest of the world knows this.

2) Increasing Naval forces in the Black Sea forces the Russians to do the same. Maintenance is not a strong suit of the Russian military. The longer they run their equipment, planes and ships, the more they break down.

3) The chances of an "accident" happening greatly increases as you put more ships in a closer proximity. One accidental missile launch or collision and there could be grounds for sharper action against the Russians by both NATO and the U.S.

4) The U.S. may have a majority of its ground troops in Iraq/Afghanistan but it can easily flex air and naval power to pound Russian military units. There is not a single U.S. Carrier Task Force in the Black Sea according to Stratfor...something that could easily change quickly and tilt the balance of power. The U.S. moved Georgian forces out of Iraq in two days...a modern transportation miracle. If we could move Georgian forces out of Iraq that quickly, don't you think the Russians know we could move U.S. troops just as easily?

The tensions in Georgia are not waning...if anything they are still on the rise. Keep your eyes on this one folks. Pyrene senses it is not even close to getting better.

Pyrene on Iraq's Timeline

2008-08-26T03:17:00.000-07:00

Today's NY Times highlights Iraqi Prime Minster Maliki's desire for a hard and fast time line for U.S. troop withdrawals. Isn't this the open door America has been waiting on? The Iraqis are asking us to leave...why not take advantage of this opportunity to get our troops home?

The harsh reality is PM Maliki is walking a fine line between keeping U.S. support to keep his fragile country from falling to pieces yet maintaining internal political leverage to keep his own party from falling from power. While the Iraqi Security Forces continue to make gains in their readiness, training, equipping and organizations, they still have long way to go. If the U.S. were to suddenly leave, taking its combat multipliers with it, the Iraqi Security Forces would rapidly run into problems.

There is a good opportunity, however, to shape future agreements with the Iraqi government while reducing the overall troop posture in Iraq...thereby freeing up more U.S. troops to assist in Afghanistan. Remember just because troops leave Iraq, doesn't mean they won't have to go somewhere else to fight. Call it a "state of persistent conflict" or a "Long War"...either way it means our troops will be busy for some time to come be it in Iraq or Afghanistan.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on "J-Curve"

2008-08-25T05:42:00.000-07:00

Pyrene has a new book to recommend to all the readers out there. "J-Curve" by Ian Bremmer is well worth your valuable time, especially if you are interested in how to assist developing nations or better understanding the development of our foreign policy. Click here for the link to Amazon.com

The J-Curve is an attempt to define how nations balance stability and openness. As you can gather, the curve is shaped like an angled "J" with stability on one access and openness on the other. Bremmer writes his book in an easy to read and understand style yet is packed with great information on different types of nations and specific nations in the international system. I found his analysis of the "closed" nations such at North Korea especially interesting.

Another aspect of Bremmer's book is how we can possibly apply his theory to developing nations. With our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, J-Curve offers potentially valuable ideas on how to best assist those nations towards becoming both a stable and open nation. Notice I did not say "force them to become a democracy". Rather, the highest point on the J-Curve is reserved for nations with a high degree of openness (access to info, ability to communicate, etc) and a high degree of stability (can survive a shock such as a French strike or 9/11 type event).

J-Curve is worth the time to read for any aspiring foreign policy guru out there or anyone interested in understanding our world just a little better.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on the ethnic card

2008-08-20T05:54:00.000-07:00

It was only a matter time before ethnic killings bubbled up to the surface in the news. The NY Times today reported on the reports of ethnic killings in the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkazhia as well as in Georgia itself. Pyrene has some experience in the Balkans, Kosovo in particular. Pyrene has seen first hand the violent results of ethnic hatred and the absolute importance to get the full story out to the world.

From a DIMEFIL perspective, if you read one Pyrene's posts last week, we looked at what some potential options the United States had with regards to dealing with Russia. It is fairly obvious that the Russians are not leaving Georgia as promised. If anything, it appears the Russians are fortifying their positions and digging in equipment. What really concerns Pyrene, however, is what is happening to the civilians behind the Russian lines. From a DIMEFIL perspective, there are two key elements the U.S. needs to quickly harness: information and intelligence.

Rumors of ethnic violence are just that: rumors until proven true. There needs to be an international media campaign to flood Georgia with reporters, camera crews and bloggers to get the truth out. A video speaks more loudly then a report of possible ethnic killings. The U.S. needs a dedicated information campaign, coordinated with the media, to get the truth out to the world. Accusations and counter accusations are nothing new in this type of conflict. Pyrene personally witnessed accusations in Kosovo about events that had happened decades before, yet were still fresh in the accusers mind. Information is not only necessary, but vital.

Our intelligence apparatus apparently missed the signs of the impending Russian invasion. That is in the past. What is needed now is evidence of Russian troop movements, of positions being fortified, and if possible, of violations of international law, especially human rights violations. We have the technology to get satellite imagery which can show these events...get it out to the public in a combined public information/intelligence campaign.

Tied to both of these instruments of national power is law enforcement. The recent capture of former Bosnian Leader Karadzic is proof that the international community has a strong sense of law enforcement. If proof of international human rights violations exist, we must immediately start building a case through out information and intelligence efforts. We must then harness the international community, which is on our side in this matter, to start legal proceedings. The Hague has been an effective tool albeit slow, to prosecute human rights violators. With our help. it once again has the potential to slow or stop the potential wave of violence cresting in the Georgian/South Ossetia area.

Pyrene says let the light of truth penetrate into the dark recesses behind the Russian lines. What do YOU say?

-Pyrene

What now Pakistan?

2008-08-18T05:36:00.000-07:00

Pakistan's President and long-time military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, resigned his post today, effectively ending his leadership within Pakistan. For nearly a decade, Musharraf has been the leader of Pakistan and a strong American ally in the Global War on Terror. His resignation presents a lot of tough future questions for both Pakistan and America.

Pakistan, since 9/11, has been a supporter, whether willingly or unwillingly, to America. Most realize that Al Qaeda both formed in the hills of Pakistan and continues to hold sanctuary in their unruly western regions. The majority of U.S. logistics for Afghanistan moves by ground convoys from the ports in Pakistan to the troops and close cooperation between Coalition military and the Pakistani military is vital to defeat a tough enemy moving through some of the most inhospitable terrain in the world.

As the U.S. loses an ally with the departure of Musharraf, they have the chance to reestablish old ties within Pakistan and perhaps, look for new routes towards cooperation. Like all nation-states, Pakistan wants to do what is best for Pakistan. Strong-arming or trying to buy off Pakistan is not a viable option for the U.S. Pyrene believes, however, it is in both nations' interests to combine efforts to get rid of the Al Qaeda influence which continues to build within Pakistan. AQ continues to pose a threat to not only the United States, but an even more direct threat to Pakistan. The old saying, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" seems most appropriate in this situation.

The NY Times has a good story on the resignation of President Musharraf here. Additionally, the English version of Al Jazeera has a good story as well. Read up on the situation. Pyrene asks you to make your own decision.

DIMEFIL analysis

2008-08-14T05:25:00.000-07:00

Let us take a look today at the U.S. elements of national power and which, if any, could be applied to the current situation between Russia and Georgia.

Diplomatic: We see that occurring now. Secretary of State Rice is en route to the region to try and work out an agreement that is beneficial to both sides. Story from the NY Times here. Where we really failed, however, was in our diplomatic efforts before hand. That will link to another instrument of national power we dropped the ball on.

Information: One we continue to struggle with but probably the most powerful one we can use in this situation. While we are sending humanitarian aid to the Georgians, we need a media blitz against the Russians focused not just at the people of the U.S. but all of our allies. There are More than enough images from the fighting and broken rules of international law for a savvy information campaigner to design a program that would obliterate Russia...in an information campaign that is.

Military: The U.S. is strategically tapped out in Pyrene's opinion. Would airstrikes or a no-fly zone have helped the Georgians? Perhaps but at what cost? At this point, military aid is probably the only thing the U.S. could do, and would want to do I believe.

Economic: Nope, we got nothing here. Russia is literally swimming in oil revenues and cash. Kick them out of the G8? Say hello to $20 a gallon gas prices in Europe.

Financial: Pretty much the same but with some potential. Even though our markets aren't doing great, the Russian market is on a precipice, ready to plunge as soon as the oil bubble burst. There are some pressures the U.S. could exert on the markets (releasing strategic oil reserves for example) which Pyrene thinks, could put pressure on Russia's financial situation.

Intelligence: Ok, we hosed this one up. Of course Pyrene has no idea what happened behind the scenes but Georgia, for sure, had no idea that many Russian troops and tanks were about to invade their country. I suspect U.S. intelligence heads were NOT on a swivel and missed the build up as well. Hopefully we are providing intelligence directly to Georgian Armed Forces on what the Russians are up to.

Law Enforcement: Not too much here other than registering our protests about the breach of International Law. Pyrene does not see Interpol going over to arrest the Russian PM or President however. Getting international monitors into Georgia, is one aspect which may assist with the quick recovery of law and order. A necessary step to bring back some stability to the region.

There is Pyrene's DIMEFIL take. Ask yourself this question as you surf the net today...what do YOU think?

Pyrene on Russian Fear

2008-08-13T05:00:00.000-07:00

Today's Washington Post had a strange article that caught Pyrene's attention. The article states, "The Bush administration suggested yesterday that an apparent cease-fire in Georgia came about because Moscow feared it would be banished from Western-dominated international economic and political institutions if it did not stop its "aggression" in the former Soviet republic" Pyrene finds this a rather absurd thing to say about the powerful Russian response to Georgia. Here is some food for thought:

1) For 20 years, America has failed to find another source of energy outside of oil. The current oil prices, and state-owned companies in Russia, have created a massive windfall of cash for the Russians. They supply over 60% of the energy resources to Europe and, in essence, have them in an energy chokehold

2) For those same 20 years, both diplomats and military analysts in the U.S. have written off the Russians as a serious threat. Although after the fall of the Berlin Wall it is true the Russian military's standards dropped considerably, you cannot discount their vast history and pride. The Russian military always remained an intellectually powerful force. It takes longer to build the mind and pride then the actual troops. Russia did just this, rebuilding its military into what looks like a very potent force for operations on its borders. We failed to see this revitalization of the bear as did so many others.

3) In Georgia, the Russians have ALL the leverage points. They could easily complete the conquest of Georgia with minimum loss of military power. There are no real sanctions anyone in the world than do to harm the Russians and, let us be honest, both the U.S. and NATO were pouring a honey potion in the ear of Georgian President Saakashvili. With offers of possible entry into NATO, the support to the U.S. led coalition in Iraq and with U.S. military advisers within Georgia itself, the provocation of the Russian bear resulted in a terrible mauling.

4) There is literally no viable military response that Pyrene could think of which would have any effect on the Russians. They have a dagger poised at the heart of Georgia and have both the means and the motive to finish the job.

Pyrene would love to be a fly on the wall the last couple of weeks before the fighting started to see what kind of intrigue was running amok in Georgia, Russia and South Ossetia. For the Russians to move such a massive armored force so quickly into Georgia, they must have been planning such an action for weeks ahead of time...if not months. Why did Georgia think it could conduct blatant operations with South Ossetia without expecting some sort of Russian counter? What coordiation occurred between the South Ossetians and Russia to provoke Georgia? All questions Pyrene would love to know the answer to. Perhaps in time, these decisive moments will be revealed. Until then, make your own informed decision.

-Pyrene

Pyrene's take on peace and war

2008-08-11T08:33:00.000-07:00

Pyrene watched the split spectacle this weekend. On one hand, the Olympics, long heralded as a chance for peace and cooperation in the world, played out across dozens of channels. On the other, the Russian invasion of Georgia continued unmolested other than some feeble diplomatic protests. Peace on one channel, war on the other.

Pyrene was glad to see the U. S. move so quickly to get the Georgian brigade (about 2000 soldiers) out of Iraq and back to their home country. 2000 combat seasoned fighters are definately a much needed asset to the Georgian government but Pyrene fears it is not enough.

The NY Times today estimates there are almost 25,000 Russian soldiers and 500 tanks in Georgia proper. The expansion of Russian soldiers into the separatist area of Abkhazia, only points more and more towards the Russian goal of a total take over of the two separatist areas AND the destruction of the Georgian armed forces.

Now what? Russia's intent still is not clear. Based on the evidence seen by Pyrene on the news, it appears this was a well planned and heavily executed effort by the Russians to punish the Georgian government. It takes time to get that many troops and vehicles positioned for such devastating invasion. Repeated attempts at a cease-fire from Georgia to Russia have fallen on deaf ears...the Russians are winning and right now, have no reason to stop their actions.

What should we do? Pyrene has his own ideas but will keep them to himself for now. Georgia is the 3rd largest contributor to the debacle in Iraq behind the US and the UK. How we support our allies in the current crisis will speak volumes to the rest of the world. Do we risk supporting them militarily? What would the consequences be if we were to use our might to establish a "No-Fly Zone" over Georgia to keep Russian bombers from striking across the country? Do we have any economic or political sanctions that we could leverage against the Russians? Think it over quickly. Those 2000 Georgian soldiers will not buy that much time.

Pyrene

Russia, South Ossetia and Georgia

2008-08-08T10:50:00.000-07:00

Major news from the other side of the world which could have a significant impact on everyone. Hostilities started between Russia and Georgia over the seperatist province of South Ossetia. Story here.

The Ossetians are an ethnic group located inbetween Russia and Georgia. The Ossetians have been pushing for a country of their own and declared their independence a few years ago, which few have recognized. Northern Ossetia is still within Russia proper.

Why should this conflict concern us? A few reasons.

1) Georgia is one of the few allies we have actively supporting us in Iraq. They actually have about 20% of their total armed forces in Iraq helping us. I suspect they will be rapidly pulled out of Iraq and back into their home country. This will put more burden on US troops to take care of the area they were in.

2) This operation signals a revival of the Russian bear of old. For years, many have argued Russia was spending money on rebuiliding its military while sacrificing the quality of living for its soldiers. With its huge windfall of oil profits, Russia has a nearly limitless pool of money to use on equipment and men. There has been a recent resurgence in the strengths of the Russian military and their willingness to flex their muscle around the globe. The invasion of Georgia, a sovereign nation, is a clear indicator of their willingness to use force.

3) A HUGE oil pipeline runs from Baku in Azerbaijan, through Tbilisi (The capitol of Georgia) to Ceylon in Turkey. The Russians are hitting targets all around the country. Imagine what the oil markets will do if that major BTC pipeline is damaged or destroyed. And you thought gas prices were bad now.

4) Europe gets over 50% of its oil and natural gas from Russia. While the military cold war ended decades ago, the resurgent Russia maintains a virtual energy choke hold over Europe. Do not expect NATO or European members to do more than issue statements condemning the attack...there is little they can do.

Those are a few reasons why you should take a moment to read up on the ongoing conflict in Georgia. Pyrene says we should take notice, read up on what is going on and realize, these incident thousands of miles away can impact us directly.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on the Iraqi Army

2008-08-06T05:55:00.000-07:00

Today's NY Times had a good article on the progress made by the Iraqi Army. This particular unit they speak with is in the Diyala Province. Here is a quick link to see where the Diyala Province is thanks to google maps.

Diyala remains one of the hot beds of insurgent activity in Iraq. When the famous Surge started in 2007, the main focus was the capital city of Baghdad. Diyala already had an aggressive insurgent base before the Surge began. As more U.S. troops entered Baghdad, they squeezed out many of the insurgents to surrounding areas. Diyala was one of the least secure before the surge and provided the perfect opportunity for insurgents to reinforce their base. Diyala has some severely restricted terrain varying from dense palm groves to open desert criss crossed with irrigation ditches. It also runs to the Iranian border, complete with steep mountain ranges, the perfect routes for smugglers and moving between the two countries.

The Iraqi Army is still learning. The U.S. advisers, as mentioned in an earlier post, play a vital role in organizing, training, equipping, rebuilding and advising these soldiers. Those who have joined just for a quick paycheck for the most part, are gone. The Iraqi soldiers are willing to fight and often win their battles. However, they still need U.S. assets. The Iraqi Army is still immature. Pyrene does not mean their personal maturity. Rather, it is the infrastructure of the Iraqi Military that needs continued assistance. Building infantry units is easy, relatively speaking. Developing the systems to fix vehicles, provide supplies, fly air craft, help the wounded, get soldiers their pay, process paperwork, delivering ammunition and the host of other systems that the U.S. military is so good at, takes time. Just as in any legacy business model, you need to have your systems developed and in place for long term viability. That is what the Iraqis need now.

Pyrene salutes our advisers working to get the Iraqi Military to a point where we can leave. Pyrene has been there, has shared the goat meat and flat bread with his Iraqi friends. There needs to be a delicate balance of "tough love" however. Cutting off Iraqis completely at the costs of lives, in Pyrene's opinion, is not the solution. There needs to be a balance between U.S. support and Iraqi military Independence. Where is that? I challenge you, dear reader, to search for that on your own.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on Afghanistan

2008-08-04T05:09:00.000-07:00

The NY Times had a good article on the continued resistance of the Taliban in Afghanistan. After six years of fighting, the Times asks why the most powerful military in the world has been unable to snuff out the insurgents.

What Pyrene wants to remind everyone is we are fighting an insurgency. The average time it takes to defeat an insurgency is 9 years. With the pre-eminence of the Army's Counterinsurgency Field Manual 3-24 a few years ago, more people began to understand the difference between a conventional war and an insurgency.

Fighting an insurgency takes time. T.E. Lawrence's famous quote still applies, "Fighting an insurgency is like learning to eat soup with a knife." This quote was used by LTC (Ret) John Nagl in his excellent book comparing the learning cultures between the British military in Malaysia and the U.S. military in Vietnam. Fighting insurgencies takes time. Learning the culture, figuring out the people of a region and the goals of the insurgents all takes time. In our society of "I want it right now", it is hard for Americans to have patience when it comes to these types of fights.

Give the military the time they need and, as always, provide them with the support back home. You may or may not agree with the politics behind the decisions, but keep those troopers in your thoughts.

Pyrene

Pyrene on Iraq

2008-08-01T05:17:00.000-07:00

Great news for our soldiers. The President announced yesterday that new troop rotations to Iraq are back to 12 months. While that still is an unbelievably long amount of time to be away from their families in one of the true places you can call hell on earth, it shows progress is being made. No doubt 12 months beats 15 months deployed there, away from home and family. More good news on the decreased casualty numbers as well from the Washington Post.

Pyrene has some experience working with security forces and training Foreign Security Forces (FSF). The key to Iraq are the Iraqis. The only way America can continue to downsize the amount of our forces and financial expenditures within Iraq is to continually pass the mantel of authority to the Iraqis. This requires well trained security forces and, here is the important part: the infrastructure to support them. Well trained police are useless without the laws, courts, procedures, pay and ministry functions to support them. The same can be said for any one of the FSF elements ranging from the Army to the Coast Guard to the Customs Patrols (and yes, Iraq has these as well). Our advisory mission is by far the most important aspect of everything our military does in Iraq...yet it still remains the least manned and funded effort. As we look to shift forces from Iraq to potential operations in Afghanistan, we must not forget where the main effort in Iraq needs to be: maintaining the hard fought security gains while continuing to build up the Iraqi Security Forces.

Pyrene's prediction: The advisory force in Iraq will become an enduring mission...read continuing for a long time. With the continued efforts of our brave men and women in uniform, hopefully the Iraqi security situation continues to improve and we can reunite these brave defenders of freedom with their families sooner while the Iraqis shoulder more the burden for their security.

Pyrene's request: When you see one of our military members, please go up and thank them for their service. I saw it the other day. A few soldiers eating in a restaurant when a complete stranger walked up and thanked them...then paid their bill! I'm not asking you to do that, but a simple word of thanks for the sacrifices made by the sons and daughters of America will do more good than you could possibly imagine.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on infrastructure

2008-07-30T05:32:00.001-07:00

Yesterday's earthquake in California must have been a scary experience for you folks on the coast. One thing Pyrene kept hearing over and over again was the emphasis on our infrastructure. As part of a DIMEFIL analysis, we cannot overlook the importance of our infrastructure as a key element of our national power.

Infrastructure encompasses anything which facilitates movement, transportation, commerce and physical necessities to conduct transportation. Everything from roads, rails, bridges, ports, harbors, airports, canals, falls into the infrastructure category. Without a viable infrastructure, every element of our national power (DIMEFIL again) is impacted and greatly disrupted. The Washington Post has a good article on the impacts of the earthquake and the importance of preparing for "the big one".

Pyrene's take: Our infrastructure is woefully underfunded and in disrepair. The I-35 bridge collapse in Minneapolis is just one example of both the condition of our infrastructure and the major impact the loss of a single key part of that infrastructure can cause across the country. Pyrene says we need to understand more about our critical infrastructure, prepare for any sort of contingency which impacts those key sites and continue to push for a more active effort to upgrade our infrastructure for our nation's future.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on building a better mouse trap.

2008-07-29T05:28:00.000-07:00

Guantanamo Bay. Today's New York Times has an article about the ongoing trials of the terrorists being held there. While Pyrene may not be the smartest mouser on the mess hall, I truly think there was a better way to build this mouse trap.

Currently, "high value" detainees are kept at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Yes, the same place from "A Few Good Men". However, the damage to America's image because of the current detainee efforts at Guantanamo is far worse than any Code Red.

Since we have not labeled these terrorists, Enemy Combatants, we do not recognize their rights as Prisoners of War. Numerous international agreements from the Geneva Convention. Click here to actually read what the Geneva Conventions say. Since we have chosen to ignore the most widely recognized rules on the conduct of international warfare, we leave ourselves open to continued diplomatic, informational, military, intelligence and legal woes (notice that is nearly most of my DIMEFIL watch). Not only have we lost credibility in the eyes of the international community, we continue to have increasingly tenacious debates within our country.

Pyrene's better mouse trap: Declare them prisoners of war. We have a "Global War on Terror" currently underway. Per the Geneva conventions, prisoners of war must be returned at the formal end of hostilities. Give them the rights recognized by the international community. They are still prisoners, unable to inflict any more damage against the civilized world. We simply hold them as internationally recognized prisoners of war until the war ends...per the Geneva Convetions (Conventions III, Section II, Article 118). Here is the better mouse trap. If someone can tell Pyrene when VT (Victory over Terror) Day will be, I'll give you a piece of cheese. A War on Terror will never have an offical "end". Therefore, these Prisoners of War are held until we a) feel we can release them or b) time takes its toll. Either way, we are following the letter of the international law.

A better mouse trap? Pyrene thinks so. Conduct your own research and make your own decisions.

-Pyrene

Pyrene on the Peloponnesian War

2008-07-28T12:50:00.001-07:00

"This world is crazy. Things have never been this bad!" How many times has Pyrene's sharp ears heard this or a similar statement across the country. While watching the news give you the impression of a world spinning off its access, one of the greatest writers and historians of all times, Thucydides, tells us different. His famous work, The Peloponnesian War tells the tale of the ancient world in chaos. Emerging superpowers, a distrust of the power of the other, entangling alliances, jealousy, greed and unexplainable suffering. Sound familiar? Thucydides wrote his story over 2000 years ago...long before the CNN generation took hold!

Thucydides takes the reader through the battles between the Ancient Greek City-States of Athens and Sparta (yes, the Sparta of "300" movie fame). A tragedy of events, alliances and mistrust leads up to a war lasting nearly 30 years, decimating the ancient world as it was known. Thucydides not only documents the history and politics of the time, but he captures the very essence of man in his work.

If you trust Pyrene enough to read Thucydides, you must read The Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War edited by Robert Strassler, translated by Richard Crawley with an introduction worth the price of the book by Victor Hanson. Complete with maps, timelines, notes and "cheat" keys, this book is well worth the price of admission, somewhere around $18 the last time Pyrene's paws went to Amazon.

The Landmark

For another worthy read of this war of wars, Victor Hanson's A War Like No Other: How the Athenians and Spartans Fought the Peloponnesian War is another seminal work on the politics, conflict, competition and mistrust so rampant in today's world, seen over 2000 years ago. For $10, Pyrene says that cannot be beat.

Hanson's Book.

Pyrene is on the prowl...

2008-07-28T11:14:00.000-07:00

...Pyrene, the legendary protector of the mess, and mouser extraordinaire, has returned to the internet. Always on watch, Pyrene is concerned about the debates ongoing regarding our national security, our grand strategy and the issued involving the DIMEFIL of our government. DIMEFIL? No this is not another reference to high gas prices. DIMEFIL stand for the seven instruments of national power. They are Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic, Financial, Intelligence and Legal (DIMEFIL). Each one of the instruments of national power make the United States who they are. They strike a precarious balance between one another, always attempting to pull in different ways. When balanced equally, the United States seems to move along a steady course through troubled international waters. When one or more elements are out of balance, however, then the going is rougher than need be.

What can Pyrene do for you? The goal is to give you an opportunity to reflection issues of National Security, on the instruments of National Power, and to make a decision for yourselves. For too long has Pyrene watched people surrender ideas, opinions and feelings to the media at large. Here, from Pyrene's Perch, will I try to give you the information to make your own decision. Pyrene does not want to change the world, merely offer you the same view he has from his perch.

-Pyrene